We are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold. These expectations are forecasts.
Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, New York, 2015, p. 1
More “balanced” thinkers (who were prone to frame arguments in “on the one hand” and “on the other” terms) were less overconfident (r = .37) and less in the limelight (r = .28). Of course, causality surely flows in both directions. On one hand, overconfident experts may be more quotable and attract more media attention. On the other, overconfident experts may also be more likely to seek out the attention.
Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton, 2005, p. 63
[V]ague terms like “probably” and “likely” make it impossible to judge forecasts. When a forecaster says something could or might or may happening, she could or might or may be saying almost anything.
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, New York, 2015, pp. 181-182