When did the tide in the war seem to change? Until the onset of the autumn weather, the German offensive against the Soviet Union in 1941 had seemed wildly successful. On October 10, Goebbels recorded the great progress, yet he sensed that Hitler and other leaders were “almost too positive and optimistic.”122 That uncanny insight was shared by General Friedrich Fromm, head of army equipment and commander of the Reserve Army, who in conversation with General Georg Thomas on October 26 mentioned Germany’s overextended position and the looming threat posed by the economic potential of the United States combined with the British Empire. Fromm’s blunt conclusion was “Promptly to recognize, that at the high point of power,” they had to seek peace before Germany was forced onto the defensive. On November 4, Fromm presented a memorandum with the same information to Minister of Armaments and Munitions Fritz Todt and told him bluntly that it was no longer possible to maintain “the army at the necessary level of war readiness.”

By November 24, Fromm repeated to Army Chief of Staff Halder that with the declining production of armaments, it was necessary to make peace.124 Nor was Fromm alone, because four days later, economic advisors in discussions with Todt said point-​blank that “The war against Russia can no longer be won.” The minister asked tank expert Walter Rohland to join him for a meeting the following morning with Hitler. There, albeit without Fromm, Rohland reported on his inspection tour of the front, mentioned the economic potential of the United States and Britain, and concluded that the war could not be won. Todt interjected hurriedly to soften the blow by adding, “This war can no longer be won militarily.” Then Hitler meekly asked, “How then shall I end this war?” When Todt said that the only option was a political solution, Hitler responded, “I can scarcely still see a way of coming politically to an end.”

Robert Gellately, Hitler's true believers: how ordinary people became Nazis, New York, New York, 2020, p. 318