Transformative AI would either raise the risk of extinction (if unaligned), or raise economic growth rates (if aligned).

Therefore, based on the economic logic above, the prospect of transformative AI – unaligned or aligned – will result in high real interest rates. This is the key claim of this post.

Basil Halperin, J. Zachary Mazlish, and Trevor Chow, AGI and the EMH: markets are not expecting aligned or unaligned AI in the next 30 years, January 10, 2023