You can get n layers deep into the details, and if the bottom is at n+1 you’re fucked.To give an example I see people talking about with this debate, “The lab was working on doing gain of function to coronaviruses just like this!” sounds pretty damning but “actually the grant was denied, do you think they’d be working on it in secret after they were denied funding?” completely reverses it.Then after the debate, “Actually, labs frequently write grant proposals for work they’ve already done, and frequently are years behind in publishing” reverses it again.

jimmmy, Comment to ‘[Linkpost] Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate’, LessWrong, April 4, 2024, p. 5