Tetlock has compiled the practices of successful forecasters into a set of guidelines for good judgment (for example, start with the base rate; seek out evidence and don’t overreact or underreact to it; don’t try to explain away your own errors but instead use them as a source of calibration).

Steven Pinker, Enlightenment now: the case for reason, science, humanism, and progress, New York, 2018, pp. 378-379