Prediction
Quotes
[V]ague terms like “probably” and “likely” make it impossible to judge forecasts. When a forecaster says something could or might or may happening, she could or might or may be saying almost anything.
Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, New York, 2015, pp. 181-182
Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.
Nassim Taleb, The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable, New York, 2007, p. 133
Social scientists should never predict the future; it’s hard enough to predict the past.
Steven Pinker, The better angels of our nature: Why violence has declined, New York, 2011, p. 278
The future is not the realization of our hopes and dreams, a warning to mend our ways, an adventure to inspire us, nor a romance to touch our hearts. The future is just another place in spacetime.
Robin Hanson, The rapacious hardscrapple frontier, in Damien Broderick (ed.) Year Million: Science at the Far Edge of Knowledge, New York, 2008, pp. 168–189, p. 168