Improving decision making (especially in important institutions)

Abstract

This article from 80,000 Hours, a non-profit organization that researches and advocates for career paths that make the biggest positive difference in the world, examines the issue of improving decision making in important institutions, arguing that better decision-making processes could significantly impact global problems like catastrophic pandemics, climate change, and AI-related risks. The authors explore promising areas for intervention, including improving forecasting, prediction markets, and decision-making science. They acknowledge the complexity of the problem, highlighting the challenges of implementing changes in large, bureaucratic organizations, and the difficulty of measuring the impact of such interventions. Despite these challenges, the authors remain optimistic about the potential for progress in this area. – AI-generated abstract