A primer on the Metaculus scoring rule

Abstract

On Metaculus, thousands of forecasters have submitted hundreds of thousands of forecasts on thousands of questions over the last six years. We pride ourselves in keeping score and transparently reporting the accuracy of every forecast made on our platform. Given some discussion of it in the community, we thought it would be useful to provide a primer on how the Scoring Rule on Metaculus works, and its current benefits and shortcomings. We have some ideas for future changes, but we’ll get to those in a later post.