Preliminary survey of prescient actions

Abstract

The article conducts a survey of 20 cases of prescient actions, actions that attempt to eliminate or mitigate a problem a decade or more in advance and in the absence of previous experience with analogous problems. These cases are evaluated on several criteria including the number of years in advance the action was taken, the existence of scientific consensus on the solution, and the specificity and feedback available during the development of the solution. From their evaluation, only six cases are rated as promising for further research: actions taken to combat antibiotic resistance, the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, the development of quantum-safe cryptography, preparation for geomagnetic storms, slowed spread of Panama Disease, and search for its solutions. – AI-generated abstract.