Failures in technology forecasting? A reply to Ord and Yudkowsky

Abstract

This article emphasizes the tendency of renowned scientists to make inaccurate forecasts about technological developments. Specifically, the author focuses on failed technology forecasts related to atomic energy, nuclear engineering, the invention of aircraft, and artificial general intelligence (AGI). The author claims that such forecasts often fall short due to direct or indirect connections between the predictions and their disproof, poor communication, and biased samples of historical cases. Furthermore, the author discusses the idea that technological development can take place largely in secret, highlighting the example of nuclear weapons. The author concludes that experts’ technology forecasts should be treated with caution, as they might not accurately reflect the pace and timing of technological advancements. – AI-generated abstract.