Confidence levels inside and outside an argument

Abstract

In circumstances where one has limited information about an event, such as an election, and relies solely on a model or argument to estimate the probability of that event, it is important to differentiate between the internal and external levels of confidence. The internal confidence level is the probability assigned by the specific model or argument, while the external confidence level should be lower due to potential flaws or limitations in the model or argument. This is because even if the model or argument provides a very high internal confidence level, there is always a chance that it is mistaken. The article emphasizes the need to consider the external confidence level, especially when evaluating arguments that yield extremely high internal confidence levels. – AI-generated abstract.