A failure, but not of prediction

Abstract

The author argues that the media’s failure to adequately warn about the coronavirus pandemic was not solely due to prediction failures. Rather, many journalists adopted a “Goofus-like” mindset, waiting for incontrovertible proof before accepting the possibility of a disaster. The author advocates for a “Gallant” approach that embraces uncertainty and conducts cost-benefit analyses to determine appropriate responses. While experts may have estimated a low probability of a severe pandemic, the media should have communicated this uncertainty and the potential consequences of ignoring it. Individuals like Zeynep Tufekci and Kelsey Piper are cited for their ability to recognize and respond to the urgency of the situation despite its uncertainty. The author emphasizes that managing uncertainty effectively involves not only acknowledging limitations but also using them to inform decision-making. – AI-generated abstract.