When will AI automate all mental work, and how fast?

Abstract

A presentation of economist Tom Davidson’s 2023 “compute-centric” model of AI takeoff, which answers two questions: when could AI automate all current cognitive labor, and how fast might that transition happen? The model considers the resources required to train increasingly capable AI systems (compute × algorithmic efficiency) and the rate at which these resources grow. Simulating it suggests a median arrival of AI that can automate 100% of human cognitive labor in 2043, with the jump from 20% to 100% automation taking roughly three years.