A general framework for evaluating aging research. Part 1: reasoning with Longevity Escape Velocity

Abstract

To this day there is a lack of systematic research to evaluate a cause area with immense potential: aging research. This is the first of a series of posts in which I’ll try to begin research to address this gap. The points made in this post are about how to evaluate impact using the concept of Longevity Escape Velocity. Bringing the date of Longevity Escape velocity closer by one year would save 36,500,000 lives of 1000 QALYs, using a conservative estimate. Other sources of impact that arise from the same concept include: increasing the probability of Longevity Escape Velocity, making Longevity Escape Velocity spread faster, and making a new future portion of the population reach Longevity Escape Velocity by increasing its life expectancy. Aging research could also positively impact the cost-effectiveness of other interventions by increasing the probability that Longevity Escape Velocity will be attained in the recipients’ lifetimes. I will also discuss why the probability of Longevity Escape Velocity is substantial and why QALYs should be the measure of impact, and I’ll give mathematical proofs that the adoption speed of the technologies that arise from research doesn’t impact cost-effectiveness analyses.