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Matthew Barnett and Tamay Besiroglu A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines online [Update 2 (11/4/2022): Matthew Barnett would like to note that he now thinks he will probably (\textgreater50% credence) lose the 2026 bet.] …

A concrete bet offer to those with short AI timelines

Matthew Barnett and Tamay Besiroglu

LessWrong, April 9, 2022

Abstract

[Update 2 (11/4/2022): Matthew Barnett would like to note that he now thinks he will probably (\textgreater50% credence) lose the 2026 bet.] …

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