A model for the impacts of nuclear war

Abstract

Nuclear war is a rare event, but its potential consequences are severe. This paper presents a model for calculating the total impacts of nuclear war. The model encompasses physical, infrastructural, and social impacts that would affect human lives. The five main branches of the model correspond to the five main types of effects of nuclear weapon detonations: thermal radiation, blast, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic pulse, and human perceptions. Each branch is then further divided into a series of modules that capture the interconnected nature of the impacts, such as the damage to infrastructure caused by fire and the disruption to transportation systems caused by infectious disease outbreaks. The model also examines how nuclear war could interact with other global catastrophic risks, such as climate change and the development of risky new technologies. – AI-generated abstract.