A model for the probability of nuclear war

Abstract

The probability of nuclear war is a major factor in several policy issues. However, there have been few attempts to model or quantify this probability. This paper presents a detailed model of nuclear war that can be used to understand and quantify the probability of nuclear war. The model is based on identifying and modeling nuclear war scenarios, i.e., the range of ways that nuclear war can occur. This paper stops short of quantifying probability because that would require more detailed analysis than one paper can provide. However, some important conclusions are nonetheless obtainable. First, the probability of nuclear war can indeed be modeled and quantified, as attempted here using scenarios. Second, the probability of nuclear war can be reduced by reducing geopolitical tensions, strengthening the norm against nuclear weapons use, and improving the reliability of nuclear weapons systems, including monitoring, launching, and detonating systems. – AI-generated abstract.