Quantifying the probability of existential catastrophe: a reply to Beard et al.

Abstract

This paper builds on a recent evaluation of ten methodologies used to quantify the probability of global catastrophic risk (GCR) by Beard, Rowe, and Fox (BRF) and provides some commentary on the quantification of GCR. The paper finds that the probability of GCR is linked to the severity of catastrophic events and that the severity must be accounted for when quantifying GCR. It also finds that achieving higher-quality analyses will require large investments and that different methods have tradeoffs between rigor and accessibility. Additionally, it argues that analyses should be designed to support decision-making and not just be academic exercises. Taking these findings and BRF’s evaluation of specific methodologies into account would help make GCR analyses more successful at understanding and reducing the risks. – AI-generated abstract.