Chaos theory, attractors and longtermism

Abstract

This article introduces a framework for analyzing the long-term evolution of human civilization. The framework models the world state along three dimensions: the relative power of different value systems, the degree of cooperation between them, and the overall technological capabilities of civilization. The future trajectory of civilization is conceptualized as a dynamical system, with the possibility of converging to attractors such as fixed points (steady states) or limit cycles. Fixed points can represent singleton outcomes (dominance of a single value system), multipolar outcomes (stable coexistence of multiple value systems), or extinction. Limit cycles involve periodic oscillations of the world state. The article discusses the plausibility of various outcomes, including technological maturity, stagnation, and extinction, emphasizing that convergence to an attractor is not guaranteed. It also explores the potential for altruistic interventions to perturb the trajectory of civilization towards more desirable outcomes, even in the absence of convergence, though acknowledging the challenges of predicting the long-term effects of such interventions. – AI-generated abstract.