An overview of wagers for reducing future suffering

Abstract

We can potentially have a larger impact on reducing future suffering by making wagers on the following hypotheses: the world contains more sentient beings than we currently know, the future will contain a lot of suffering, and changing the long-term future is tractable. These wagers are related to the question of whether extreme outcomes dominate expected value calculations. We should not take wagers at face value, but moderate updates seem reasonable. The distinction between wagers and actual probabilities is important to avoid bias. – AI-generated abstract.