How to compare broad and targeted attempts to shape the far future

Abstract

This is a presentation I gave at the 2013 Centre for Effective Altruism Weekend Away. It contains some of my preliminary thoughts on whether it is better to try to change very long-run outcomes by focusing on specific pivotal challenges and opportunities that humanity will face or whether it is better to try to change very long-run outcomes by focusing on enhancing humanity’s capacity to deal with a broad range of possible future challenges and opportunities.