Simple DTD model

Abstract

This article studies the relative risk of an extinction event stemming from advanced AI compared to all other risks. It employs a simplified model to calculate the increase in risk from advanced AI under different development scenarios. The model calculates the fractional increase in risk from advanced AI relative to the base case risk of extinction from all other causes before the development of advanced AI. The article finds that a modest increase in the rate of development of advanced AI could significantly increase the risk from it. By presenting this data in a table, the article provides insight into the importance of careful and considered development of advanced AI systems. – AI-generated abstract.