Process tracing: From philosophical roots to best practices

Abstract

Process tracing constitutes a method for identifying and testing causal mechanisms by examining the intermediate steps, sequences, and conjunctures of events within a case. While rooted in cognitive psychology, the method is essential across social science for bridging the gap between structural context and individual agency. Grounded in scientific realism and pragmatism, this approach moves beyond historical narrative and frequentist correlation by emphasizing causal-process observations. It addresses the lack of methodological rigor in qualitative research by establishing specific best practices, which include the systematic evaluation of alternative explanations, the mitigation of evidentiary bias, and the application of Bayesian-inspired tests—such as hoop and smoking-gun tests—to weigh the probative value of data. These standards address challenges related to equifinality and the potential for infinite regress in causal steps, ensuring that within-case analysis remains both transparent and analytically tractable. Furthermore, the method facilitates the specification of scope conditions and generalizability, making it applicable to diverse theoretical lenses including rational choice, cognitive-psychological, and normative-structural frameworks. By integrating inductive insights with deductive testing, process tracing serves as a robust mechanism for capturing causal processes in action and reducing the risks of inferential error in the study of complex political phenomena. – AI-generated abstract.