Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

Abstract

This text explores the speculative realm of potential global catastrophic risks that could significantly decrease the human population by more than 10% within a five-year period by the year 2100. It encompasses a variety of triggers including nuclear warfare, pandemics of diseases, climate disasters, and technological mishaps such as AI failure modes or nanotechnology faults. The analytical framework provided combines direct estimation of specific disaster probabilities with indirect theoretical approaches, such as the Doomsday argument and the Fermi Paradox, to assess the risk of such catastrophic events. Additionally, the text reflects on human-induced risks emerging from technological advancements, contrasting them with historical natural risks that have been part of humanity’s evolutionary past. The discussion extends to forecasting methodologies and the societal implications of these potential catastrophic events through the platform Metaculus, engaging the community in prediction exercises. This holistic view aims to inform strategic decision-making and foster proactive measures against global catastrophic risks. – AI-generated abstract.