Ragnarök Question Series: If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Abstract

If a global biological catastrophe occurs, it is uncertain whether it will reduce the human population by 95% or more. A 2008 survey of participants at the Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference estimated a 0.05% chance that a natural pandemic, and a 2% chance that an engineered pandemic, would lead to human extinction by 2100. Extrapolating from historical data, the probability of an attack that kills more than 5 billion people is estimated to be around 0.0000014 per year, with a 10% chance of such an attack leading to extinction. This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series, which explores the likelihood and consequences of various global catastrophes. – AI-generated abstract.