Ragnarök series — Results so far

Abstract

This work provides an overview and update on the predictions generated by Metaculus regarding global catastrophic risks as part of the Ragnarök Series. It includes a new visualization tool for better understanding the probabilities associated with various catastrophic events, such as climate change, nuclear war, and advances in technologies like AI and biotechnology. The predictions assess probabilities of significant population declines within the century, examining both the likelihood of events happening and their potential severity. The analysis is based on collective forecasting model outputs from the Metaculus community, highlighting updated probabilities derived from a larger set of predictions than previously analyzed. This data-driven approach helps in understanding the relative probabilities of catastrophic events and guides risk assessment and prevention strategies. – AI-generated abstract.