The reversal test: eliminating status quo bias in applied ethics

Abstract

It is difficult to predict the long-term consequences of major changes. Even if we knew what these consequences would be, it could still be difficult to evaluate whether they are on balance good. Intuitive judgments are often our only recourse, yet such judgments are prone to biases. We present a heuristic for correcting for one kind of bias, status quo bias, which we suggest might be prevalent in human enhancement ethics. To illustrate the heuristic, we apply it to the case of a hypothetical technology for enhancing human cognitive capacity. Using the heuristic to eliminate status quo bias, we find that the consequentialist case for cognitive enhancement is very strong. We show how our method can be generalized for use in a wide range of cases of both ethical and prudential decision-making.