Are you in a computer simulation?

Abstract

The assumption of substrate independence suggests that conscious experience is a function of computational architecture rather than biological matter. Since technologically mature civilizations would have the capacity to dedicate even a small fraction of their resources to running astronomical numbers of ancestor simulations, a logical trilemma follows. At least one of the following propositions must be true: the human-level species almost always goes extinct before reaching technological maturity; mature civilizations have negligible interest in running simulations of their ancestors; or we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. If the first two propositions are rejected, the population of simulated minds would vastly outnumber biological ones, making it statistically improbable that any contemporary observer is among the original biological minority. This argument relies on a principle of indifference, suggesting that in the absence of evidence to the contrary, one should assume they are a member of the larger group of simulated observers rather than the smaller group of biological ones. While the simulation hypothesis does not necessarily alter the validity of empirical observation or daily conduct, it admits the possibility of programmed interventions or simulated afterlives. The eventual development of ancestor-simulation technology by humanity would serve as strong evidence that the third proposition is the most likely reality. – AI-generated abstract.