A Crash Course in Probability

Abstract

The fear of flying seems to have little to do with the rarity of plane crashes, an app like “Am I Going Down?” suggests. This may be explained by the fact that plane crashes fulfill certain psychological criteria for catastrophes – they’re big, sudden, and horrific. To calculate the odds of crashing, the app employs a simple weighting of aircraft type, flight routes, and airline performance. However, it remains unclear how the relative importance of each variable is determined. Moreover, the simplistic nature of the app’s approach presents additional limitations. Well-documented shortcomings include not accounting for influential factors such as weather conditions or the difference in risk between flight segments. Despite its mathematical shortcomings, the app aims to reassure nervous flyers. It highlights the years an average person would fly a certain route to crash, as well as the years of daily flights needed for a 99% probability of crashing. The global statistics maintained by IATA reveal that although the number of plane crashes has been decreasing over the years, the fear of flying appears to be disproportionate to the actual risk, especially when compared to other modes of transport like driving. – AI-generated abstract.