Optimal existential risk reduction investment

Abstract

Humanity’s future is uncertain, as numerous existential risks, such as asteroid strikes or pandemics, could destroy civilization. The value of even a slight reduction in such a risk is astronomical, as the loss of trillions of humans and potentially, the ability to colonize the galaxy, is at stake. However, this perspective clashes with common intuitions, which prioritize more immediate and tangible concerns, such as poverty and disease. It is argued that focusing on economic growth and technological advancement is the most effective way to reduce existential risks in the long run. By increasing wealth and knowledge, humanity will be better equipped to address these threats when they emerge. A model is presented to illustrate the trade-off between maximizing economic growth and investing in existential risk reduction. The model suggests that a strategy of gradually increasing investment in existential risk reduction as wealth grows may be optimal, though more research is needed to confirm this. – AI-generated abstract.