Technology Forecasting: the Garden of Forking Paths

Abstract

Pessimistic forecasters are overconfident in fixating, hedgehog-like, on only \textlessem\textgreaterone\textless/em\textgreater scenario for how they think something \textlessem\textgreatermust\textless/em\textgreater happen; in reality, there are always many ways through the garden of forking paths, and something needs only one path to happen.