Predicting what future people value: A terse introduction to Axiological Futurism

Abstract

Humanity’s potential development of advanced technologies like AGI and capacity for space colonization raises questions about the nature and value of future creations, especially compared to those of potential grabby aliens. A crucial factor influencing long-term outcomes is the values of future agents. Predicting these values, a field called axiological futurism, is a tractable and important research area. While some believe future values will be similar to present-day values or unpredictable, this view is ill-informed, given historical value evolution and existing research progress. A research agenda might include: identifying predictors of future values; analyzing historical value change; examining potential influences like AGI and catastrophes; exploring value selection pressures, particularly in space colonization; investigating the potential for “long reflection” or “coherent extrapolated volition”; and considering the values of aliens or post-human civilizations. These inquiries could inform strategies for impacting the long-term future. – AI-generated abstract.