AGI timelines in governance: different strategies for different timeframes

Abstract

TimelinesPre-2030Post-2030ExpectationsAGI will be built by an organization that’s already trying to build it (85%)Some governments will be in the race (80%) Compute will still be centralized at the time AGI is developed (60%)More companies will be in the race (90%)National government policy won’t have strong effects (70%)China is more likely to lead than pre-2030 (85%) The best strategies will have more variance (75%)There will be more compute suppliers[1] (90%)Comparatively More Promising Strategies (under timelines X)[2]Aim to promote a security mindset in the companies currently developing AI (85%)Focus on general community building (90%)Focus on corporate governance (75%)Build the AI safety community in China (80%)Target outreach to highly motivated young people and senior researchers (80%)Avoid publicizing AGI risk (60%)Coordinate with national governments (65%)Beware of large-scale coordination efforts (80%)