A Century of Biological-Weapons Programs (1915-2015): Reviewing the Evidence

Abstract

This article reviews the history of biological weapons (BW) proliferation from 1915 to 2015, focusing on which countries possessed offensive BW programs and the characteristics of such programs. The article acknowledges the inherent difficulties of gathering reliable information on BW proliferation, given the clandestine nature of such programs and the limited open-source evidence available. The author utilizes a three-step process to assemble a list of known and suspected BW programs, examining lists compiled by experts in the field and critically evaluating the sources cited in those lists. The author identifies eighteen countries that never had a BW program, three countries that considered such programs but did not pursue them, and twenty-three countries that had, probably had, or possibly had BW programs. The author argues that only the Soviet Union and the United States developed programs with the capability to inflict mass casualties similar to that of nuclear weapons, while most programs were small and focused on covert operations or limited tactical applications. The article concludes by highlighting the need for further research on the history of BW proliferation and emphasizes the importance of enhancing transparency through more detailed reporting by countries about their past BW activities. – AI-generated abstract