Takeoff speeds

Abstract

Futurists have argued for years about whether the development of AGI will look more like a breakthrough within a small group (“fast takeoff”), or a continuous acceleration distributed across the broader economy or a large firm (“slow takeoff”). The article argues that a slow takeoff is more likely, since it is easier to figure out how to do a slightly worse version of something than to figure out how to do it. This means that someone will figure out how to do a slightly worse version of AGI before anyone figures out how to do the real thing. Additionally, a slightly-worse-than-incredibly-intelligent AI would radically transform the world, leading to growth almost as fast and military capabilities almost as great as an incredibly intelligent AI. Overall, the article provides several reasons to believe that the development of AGI will be a slow process. – AI-generated abstract.