How likely is World War III?

Abstract

It’s hard to come down conclusively on one side of the constant risk vs. durable peace debate. Contra Braumoeller, I don’t think it’s fair to say there’s no evidence for the durable peace hypothesis. His constant risk model only predicts a 21% chance of going this long without a major war. That alone makes the Long Peace surprising! Plus, I think there are relatively strong reasons to think that nuclear deterrence has made Great Power war more costly, while globalization has made peace more profitable.