Modelling Great Power conflict as an existential risk factor

Abstract

Great power conflict, which occurs when countries with global interests and military strength defend them against rivals, has shaped the history of the world. It can also have enormous impacts on existential risk. This paper divides pathways from great power conflict to existential risks into three categories. First, international tension can affect cooperation against other risks or stoke competitions that increase the danger posed by other risk factors. Second, a great power war could directly cause a catastrophe. Third, a great power war could combine with another risk to cause a catastrophe. – AI-generated abstract.