Risks of stable totalitarianism

Abstract

Stable totalitarian regimes, lasting for millennia or longer, pose a significant, though low-probability, risk to humanity’s future. Historically, totalitarian regimes have caused widespread suffering and death, but their duration has been limited by external competition, internal resistance, and succession problems. Emerging technologies, especially advanced AI, could empower future totalitarian states to overcome these limitations. AI could provide decisive military and economic advantages, enhance surveillance capabilities to suppress dissent, and even manage succession by encoding a regime’s ideology and objectives into a persistent AI system. While global domination by a single totalitarian power remains unlikely, several pathways exist, including forceful conquest enabled by AI, totalitarian takeover of powerful states or international governing bodies, and the erosion of democratic institutions. Mitigating this risk involves improving AI governance, researching the downsides of global coordination efforts, developing defensive technologies that empower individuals, and strengthening democratic institutions. – AI-generated abstract.