The optimal timing of spending on AGI safety work; why we should probably be spending more now

Abstract

When should funders wanting to increase the probability of AGI going well spend their money? We have created a tool to calculate the optimal spending schedule and tentatively conclude that funders collectively should be spending at least 5% of their capital each year on AI risk interventions and in some cases up to 35%, depending on views about AGI timelines and other key variables.