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Ajeya Cotra Self-sufficient AI online The author argues that debates over whether we “already have AGI” are unproductive and proposes a clearer, more consequential milestone instead: a fully self-sufficient AI population that could survive, reproduce, and grow indefinitely without humans, which they believe is plausibly within 5–10 years.

Self-sufficient AI

Ajeya Cotra

Effective Altruism Forum, January 5, 2026

Abstract

The author argues that debates over whether we “already have AGI” are unproductive and proposes a clearer, more consequential milestone instead: a fully self-sufficient AI population that could survive, reproduce, and grow indefinitely without humans, which they believe is plausibly within 5–10 years.

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