Understanding the diffusion of large language models: summary

Abstract

This document analyzes the diffusion of large language models (LLMs) similar to OpenAI’s GPT-3, including the factors that have enabled and hindered it. The author identifies nine GPT-3-like models developed since May 2020 and analyzes their diffusion mechanisms, specifically open publication, replication, and incremental research. They find that while access to compute was a significant barrier to developing these models, the release of open-source tools and the publicity surrounding GPT-3’s capabilities accelerated their development. The author further examines the implications of these diffusion trends for AI governance, particularly in shaping the timeline of transformative AI (TAI) and mitigating potential risks associated with its development. They propose interventions aimed at limiting access to datasets and algorithmic insights to manage diffusion more effectively. – AI-generated abstract.