Prioritising under uncertainty

Abstract

In this lecture, Cotton-Barrat discusses the concept of problems with unknown levels of difficulty and presents simple models for estimating the probability of success when investing additional effort into these problems. He then explores the implications of these models in terms of the counterfactual benefits of dedicating resources to such problems. To demonstrate the practical application of these abstract concepts, Cotton-Barrat concludes the lecture by providing several proof-of-concept calculations. – AI-generated abstract.