Comment on 'What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects \>10% of the world?'

Abstract

Comment by Wei Dai - Yeah, I kind of wrote that in a hurry to highlight the implications of one particular update that I made (namely that if hospitals are overwhelmed the CFR will become much higher), and didn’t mean to sound very confident or have it be taken as the LW consensus. (Maybe some people also upvoted it for the update rather than for the bottom line prediction?). I do still stand by it in the sense that I think there’s >50% chance that global death rate will be >2.5%. Instead of betting about it though, maybe you could try to convince me otherwise? E.g., what’s the weakest part of my argument/model, or what’s your prediction and how did you arrive at it?