How to avoid accidentally having a negative impact with your project

Abstract

This presentation discusses potential second-order effects of projects undertaken by effective altruists. While projects are selected for their perceived positive first-order effects, less obvious consequences can be negative. Several factors suggest why negative second-order effects might be more common than positive ones, including the unilateralist’s curse, where a single individual can initiate a project with potentially negative consequences even when others advise against it. Another factor is regression to the mean, where random actions related to a currently successful movement like effective altruism are statistically more likely to decrease its effectiveness. Several specific negative second-order effects are discussed, including unintended negative first-order effects, low-fidelity communication leading to message distortion, attention and reputation hazards from ill-conceived projects, and information hazards. Opportunity costs such as resource diversion, lock-in effects, and drift, where a project subtly shifts the focus of the community, are also considered. Positive second-order effects like skill-building, gaining valuable transferable information, reputation building, and positive lock-in are acknowledged. The likelihood of negative effects varies with the cause area, being higher in newer, less-established fields. The presentation concludes with recommendations for mitigating negative effects, including careful consideration of potential impacts, community feedback, and thoughtful implementation of that feedback. – AI-generated abstract.