The path to 2075 — Slower global growth, but convergence remains intact

Abstract

Long-term projections for the global economy to 2075 indicate a period of slowing potential growth, primarily driven by decelerating population expansion. Despite this overall slowdown, the trend of income convergence for emerging markets (EMs) is expected to continue, with EM growth outpacing that of developed markets. This shift will be led by Asian economies; by 2050, the world’s five largest economies in real USD terms are projected to be China, the US, India, Indonesia, and Germany. By 2075, India is forecasted to overtake the US, while countries such as Nigeria, Pakistan, and Egypt could emerge as major economic powers. The recent period of US economic exceptionalism is considered unlikely to be repeated. While this convergence is expected to reduce income inequality between countries, rising inequality within countries presents a significant challenge to globalization. Key long-term risks to these projections include rising protectionism and the environmental challenges posed by climate change. – AI-generated abstract.