Estimating world GDP, one million B.C. — Present

Abstract

This study combines estimates of total human populations and estimates of levels of real GDP per capita to construct estimates of world GDP over a long historical period from 1 million B.C.E. to the present. Population data is taken from Kremer (1993). To derive GDP per capita data before 1820, two alternatives are explored. In the first, the paper assumes that GDP per capita was constant in Asia and Africa from 1500-1820, and grew at a constant rate from 1500-1820 in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Western Europe. In the second, we assume a constant relationship between population growth and Maddison-concept GDP per capita to backcast estimates of world GDP per capita before 1820. The study finds that both alternatives yield very similar estimates of total world real GDP, especially at earlier dates. – AI-generated abstract.