Possible way of reducing great power war probability?
Effective Altruism Forum, November 28, 2019
Abstract
Abstract: For twelve out of sixteen instances, a change in the world’s most powerful country led to armed conflict, as stated in Allison’s 2017 research. Although China’s purchasing power parity already surpasses that of the US, China’s market exchange GDP remains lower. This article explores whether increasing immigration to the US could prevent China’s market exchange GDP from overtaking that of the US, thus potentially preventing power shifts that could lead to conflict. The author estimates that the US’s GDP growth rate could match China’s if the US returned to its peak immigration rate, thereby staying ahead of China’s market exchange GDP. The author also discusses the potential benefits and arguments in favor of increased immigration, particularly in the context of reducing the likelihood of great power conflict. – AI-generated abstract.
