"Disappointing futures" might be as important as existential risks

Abstract

Some risks to civilization are just as important as existential catastrophes. One such risk is what the author terms “disappointing futures.” Such futures are not ones in which we die out, but ones in which we never reach our potential. For example, we may never leave the solar system, or we may never solve the problem of animal suffering. While it is not certain that disappointing futures will happen, they do not seem particularly unlikely either. The author estimates that the probability that such futures avoid us is 42%, and in this estimate he is in the middle of plausible estimates. Disappointing futures are thus a type of risk that should enter into any ranking of risks to civilization. – AI-generated abstract.