Estimating the philanthropic discount rate

Abstract

How philanthropists should spread their spending over time depends on how much they discount the future. This article investigates the various factors that contribute to the philanthropic discount rate. The discount rate, it argues, should consider the probability of extinction, expropriation, value drift, changes in philanthropic opportunities, and economic collapse. The author argues that value drift – the probability that future generations will not share the values of current generations – is a significant factor in the philanthropic discount rate, but there is a great need for more research on this issue. The article also argues that improving the estimate of the philanthropic discount rate might be the most important effective altruist cause right now. – AI-generated abstract