Giving now vs. later for existential risk: an initial approach

Abstract

This essay presents a variety of simple models on giving now vs. later for existential risk. On the whole, these models do not strongly favor either option. Giving now looks better under certain plausible assumptions, and giving later looks better under others. . On the simplest possible model with no movement growth and no external actors, giving later looks better. Higher movement growth/external spending pushes more in favor of giving now. If our efforts can only temporarily reduce x-risk, we should spend a proportion of our budget in each period, rather than spending or saving all of it. . . It has been argued that, because philanthropists are more patient than most actors, they should give later. This argument does not necessarily work for existential risk. The probability of extinction has relatively little effect on when to give. . Last updated 2020-09-08.